Tashkent on the Path to Becoming a Megapolis – Forecasts and Reality

Analysts from Commonwealth Partnership Uzbekistan have prepared a report analyzing the growing population of Tashkent and its rapid urbanization.

Accelerated urbanization and the fast-growing population of the capital provide grounds for forecasting that by 2035, the city's population will reach 4 million people, solidifying its position as the largest city in Central Asia, according to analysts at Commonwealth Partnership Uzbekistan (CMWP).

The report highlights that the current population density of Tashkent, at 68 people per hectare, is comparable to global cities such as London, Hong Kong, and Milan. It is important to note that global cities often have distinct areas of concentrated population, unlike Tashkent, which features a more evenly distributed structure.

Additionally, industrial zones occupy 18.73% of the city, but approximately 40% of these areas are used inefficiently.

"Balanced urban development should include the redevelopment of these areas with an increased share of social and business infrastructure," the CMWP report states.

Furthermore, over 35% of the city’s territory is occupied by individual residential buildings, but these accommodate only about 25% of the population. The majority of the city's residents (approximately 62%) live in mid-rise developments, which occupy just 12.3% of the city's area.

The report also mentions that 68% of children live within 500 meters of the nearest kindergarten. The lowest accessibility is observed in areas with individual housing due to the difficulty of establishing public institutions. However, private kindergartens are actively developing in these neighborhoods (based on publicly available data). CMWP experts note that the city’s primary and secondary education system provides good coverage: including private schools, 94% of children live within one kilometer of a school (even without private schools, the figure remains high at over 90%).

The situation with kindergartens is significantly worse than with schools, with only 68% of children living within 500 meters of the nearest kindergarten. 

Private kindergartens make up 45% of all such institutions, with the problem of accessibility being particularly acute for individual housing areas within the city.

CMWP forecasts a 120% increase in vehicle ownership by 2035. To manage the load on the transport network, the city needs a reorganization of its transportation scheme and consistent development of public transport (improving comfort, quality, and popularity, as well as increasing the number of routes and trips).

A growing population is a key driver for the city's development and its infrastructure. The city’s growth requires preparing utility and transport infrastructure for increased demand. Public-private partnerships (PPP) are one of the crucial tools for addressing the city’s challenges. For PPP implementation, which will spur development and infrastructure renewal, regulatory reforms and tariff policy adjustments are essential, the report emphasizes.

Source: Vzglyad.uz