How Will Tashkent Change by 2035: Forecast by CMWP Uzbekistan

The company anticipates the city's growth and highlights the need for action in several areas.

Tashkent has the potential to solidify its position as the largest city in Central Asia in the coming years. This is stated in a report by the consulting company Commonwealth Partnership.

This growth is driven by rapid urbanization and population expansion. Alongside existing business clusters, conditions for new peripheral business zones are emerging.

According to the company's estimates, by 2035, Tashkent will have 2.15 million square meters of office space—an increase of 460% compared to the current figure. To attract businesses, several challenges need to be addressed.

Population

As of July 1, Tashkent's population was just under 3 million people. At the current growth rate, the population could reach 4 million by 2035 and exceed 5 million by 2050.

The population density stands at 68 people per hectare, comparable to other metropolises like London and Hong Kong. The housing availability per capita is 22.8 square meters.

The company noted that the average housing availability figure is significantly influenced by the high proportion of residents living in private homes. The increasing share of single-person households also affects household size.

The "Tashkent-2030" strategy plans to scale up housing construction to 44,000 apartments per year, mainly outside the city's ring road. At the same time, the average apartment size has been decreasing for several years, while quality demands have been rising.

Analysts predict more active construction of "economy" and "comfort" class housing outside the capital. Since 2020, these categories have accounted for 48% of newly constructed residential space.

Land Use

Individual housing construction occupies 36.3% of the city's area—significantly more than in developed countries. However, private homes house only a quarter of the population, while over 60% of residents live in mid-rise buildings, which occupy just 12% of the area.

Nearly 19% of the city's land is industrial zones, with much of it being used inefficiently. Redevelopment of these areas, focusing on social and business infrastructure, will help achieve balanced urban development.

CMWP expects a more pronounced division of the city into low-rise and high-rise zones. The construction of "New Tashkent" southeast of the current city will shift the population density center eastward.

On the other hand, "New Tashkent" will relieve some of the transportation load from the city center, which currently houses 60% of office space. The area is also planned to host administrative offices and create up to 200,000 jobs.

However, key questions remain regarding the demand for areas far from the main city and the construction of housing to support business functions. Experts urge the publication of development plans for "New Tashkent" to inform residents and potential investors.

Infrastructure

CMWP identifies infrastructure renovation as a priority task for redevelopment, as its current state poses challenges to the city's growth. Specifically, issues include the wear and insufficient maintenance of utility infrastructure.

Foreign companies (SUEZ, Veolia) are being involved in addressing engineering communication problems. However, regulatory challenges hinder the signing of new concession agreements.

Experts also noted an increase in the number of vehicles—over the past four years, car numbers have grown by a third, and by 2035, they could increase by 120%. This may lead to more traffic congestion, parking shortages, and additional environmental issues.

Globally, solutions to this problem include measures such as paid entry to city centers, paid parking, and the development of public transport. However, the latter requires a comprehensive approach, including service reliability and quality.

Source: Spot.uz
Photo: Yevgeny Sorochin / Spot