From April 1, 2026, new rules for transactions exceeding 25 million soums will come into effect in Uzbekistan. Thus, housing purchases will completely exclude cash payments.  

 

Transition to fully cashless transactions is a systemic and irreversible change for the real estate market. This is not just about the technical form of settlements, but about increasing transparency, traceability of transactions, and the integration of the real estate market into the formal financial system. In terms of impact, it is comparable to the introduction of escrow or mandatory registration of rights. The effect will be gradual but structural. 

However, the risk of a decrease in the number of transactions in the regions immediately after the program's implementation remains. Adaptation will take time, notes the expert.

 

Market Readiness

The market's readiness for the transition to new rules is uneven. The primary segment and large developers are already operating on a cashless basis, while the secondary market and transactions between individuals remain partially "cash-based" due to tax and institutional factors. 

The most sensitive will be the secondary market for Economy/Comfort class housing, especially in the regions, and the segment of apartments purchased for personal investment, where mixed payment schemes were previously more common. 

 

Risk of Price Increase Due to Cashless Payments

A direct price increase is not expected. An indirect effect is possible due to increased fiscal burden, commissions, and higher transaction costs, but it is likely to be limited and spread over time. However, the policy of some developers, where discounts on a property depend on the payment method, remains an important factor. This will necessitate a revision of this model, and some consumers may feel the difference.

 

Difference in Impact on Primary and Secondary Markets

The effect will be stronger in the secondary market, where the very logic of conducting transactions will change, and in regional projects. 

 

Changes in Buyer Behavior

A temporary surge in transactions before the norm comes into effect is likely, especially in the secondary market. 

 

Stimulus for Mortgage and Banking Instruments

The reform will provide a foundation and impetus for the development of mortgages and escrow accounts. 

 

Who Wins and Who Comes Under Pressure

Transparent, capitalized developers with stable banking relationships and a clear financial model will benefit. Small and informal players, for whom increased transparency means increased costs, will come under pressure. 

 

Who Wins the Most

In the short term, the state and banks will benefit from increased transparency and turnover. In the medium term, buyers and institutional investors will benefit, as the market will become more predictable and secure. 

 

Impact on Attractiveness for Foreign Investors

The transition to cashless payments increases the market's attractiveness for institutional and foreign investors. 

Key factors: 

- Transaction transparency, 

- Reduction of regulatory risks, 

- Comparability with international practice

 

The Spot publication discussed the initiative with real estate market participants: developers, real estate agencies, and industry experts, inviting Alexey Letunovsky to comment. 

The opinions of other survey participants can be found on the pages of the business publication Spot.